Systematic review of prostate cancer risk prediction models for use in the general population

In the UK, prostate cancer is the most common cancer in men with over 40,000 new cases diagnosed each year and approximately 10,000 dying as a direct result of the disease. It is a highly variable disease with some men at risk of serious illness that will harm them, whilst in others the disease is relatively harmless. At present, we don’t know how to get the balance right between 1) the early identification of those with serious disease to prevent the disease from causing harm and 2) minimising the detection of disease which is harmless, for which some may receive unnecessary treatment. Patient and clinician groups have identified this issue as research priority for the National Health Service. This study helps to addresses this uncertainty by reviewing all the models that have been developed to help us predict an individual’s risk of prostate cancer in the general population. We will evaluate the trustworthiness and performance of each of these models using well-established review methods. Importantly, we will identify all the risk factors that each of these models use and consider their suitability for use in the general population. Findings from the review will be the first step towards developing an improved risk prediction model for prostate cancer designed for use in the UK male population. In future, we plan to test the new model using biological and medical data collected from large numbers of volunteers in the UK BioBank and / or the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer (EPIC) study linked to data from a large GP practice database.

Amount awarded: £27,569.00