Using linked primary care and viral surveilance data to develop risk stratification models to inform management of severe COVID19

Principal Investigator: Rupert Payne

20 April 2020 to 20 October 2020
Project No: 494
Funding round: FR20

COVID19 is a new illness that can affect your lungs and airways. It's caused by a type of virus called a coronavirus. The virus has rapidly spread around the world, and is associated with a high risk of serious complications, including the need for specialised hospital care (for example, use of a breathing machine, or ventilator) and death.

We know that older people and individuals with pre-existing health problems who develop COVID19 are at higher risk of serious disease or death. It is therefore important that we understand exactly which patients are at the greatest risk of harm, so that we can ensure those individuals can try and minimise their exposure to the virus (called “social distancing”), treat people earlier if possible, and make sure treatments are prioritised for those patients that are most likely to benefit.

We propose to join routine health data recorded by GP surgeries to the records of the most severely ill COVID19 patients who have been admitted to hospital intensive care units. By doing this, we will be able to find out which existing health problems, drug treatments, or other factors (for example, smoking or pregnancy) are most strongly associated with people being admitted to intensive care or dying as a complication of COVID19.

We intend to undertake the research extremely quickly, so that the findings can be passed on to the NHS and public health authorities to help guide care for the wider population as soon as possible.